Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Why Did Clinton Effectively Sit Out the Potomac Primaries?

And why is she only now beginning to campaign in Wisconsin?

#1: It is taking too long
Everything in the Clinton campaign was towards Super Tuesday being the deciding point of the campaign. The campaign's entire structure - where field offices were opened, where TV advertising time was booked, vendor scheduling, even when staff vacations were planned - was built around the belief that February 5 would be the end of the active campaign season. The Clinton team was unprepared for it to be only the beginning.

#2: It is costing too much
Campaign consultants love spending other peoples money. Lavishly. There has been much written elsewhere about the Clinton campaign spending $500,000 on parking last year. It isn't just how much is spent (Obama has spent about as much as Clinton on marketing and advertising consultants) as the quality of the results. On the local level, where I have a little experience, consultants will pad their expenses if you let them. I've studied the Clinton and Obama expense reports. As a general rule, Clinton tends more towards caviar. Her consultants see her as a cash cow and have milked her dry.

#3: Shock and awe
The Clinton team began to believe their own public relations message that her nomination was inevitable. While her third-place finish in Iowa and huge defeat in South Carolina were shocking they convinced themselves each was just a one-off. They believed that the Obama team had to be in the same situation as they were after Super Tuesday, depleted and exhausted. They were wrong.

The Clinton campaign is scrambling to compete in states they didn't believe would matter. They are way behind. Her campaign website still doesn't have an address for their Wisconsin field office, just a phone number. Obama has three offices operating in the state. There is too little time for the Clinton campaign to gear up an operation in Wisconsin that can compete with Obama's. Clinton can only hope to jump in swinging and pray for a miracle or stay away and call the state meaningless.

And that is why the Clinton campaign keeps talking about Texas and Ohio like they were the Holy Grail. They hope by then to have their campaign organization repaired. If they can defeat Obama in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania they will try to convince the super delegates that is proof they can beat Obama head-to-head and the February losses are the result of Barack cheating by running campaigns in states Clinton wasn't trying in.

1 comment:

PoliShifter said...

The Last Best Hope at this point for the Clinton Campaign is to debate Obama as much as possible.

Problem is, Hillary has already threatened to do no more debates with MSNBC over David Shuster's commment that the Clintons are pimping Chelsea out to secure Super Delegate votes.

Hillary now favors Fox News. I don't know that a Fox News debate would benefit her with the constituency she needs to be reaching out to.